Karol Lucan asked:


THURSDAY, SEPT. 6

Oregon State at Cincinnati: Oregon State is 3-7 ATS versus non-conference foes on the road the last seven seasons.

Middle Tennessee State at Louisville: Louisville is a national best 15-1 as a home favorite over the past three seasons.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 7

Navy at Rutgers: Rutgers has covered five of its last six games against Navy, including three straight in New Brunswick, NJ and is 11-4-1 ATS versus non-conference foes since 2003.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 8

Air Force at Utah: Air Force has covered five straight versus Utah and is 13-3 ATS in road openers since 1991.

Alabama at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt is 9-2-1 ATS versus Alabama since 1992.

Memphis at Arkansas State: Arkansas State has covered four of its last five games versus Memphis.

Ball State at Eastern Michigan: Ball State is 6-2 ATS versus Eastern Michigan the last eight encounters.

Rice at Baylor: Baylor has covered the last three meetings with Rice.

Boise State at Washington: Washington is 3-14-1 versus non-conference opponents.

BYU at UCLA: UCLA has beaten the spread in five of the last six meetings.

Buffalo at Temple: Temple is 9-2-1 ATS versus MAC schools the past three seasons.

Toledo at Central Michigan: Toledo is 6-9-1 ATS in the MAC the past two seasons while CMU has a conference ATS record of 13-4.

Duke at Virginia: Duke is 2-11 SU but 8-5 ATS versus Virginia the last 13 meetings.

Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma State: In its three-year existence, FAU is 1-7 ATS versus BCS schools such as OSU.

South Carolina at Georgia: The home team is 8-5 ATS in this series.

Hawaii at Louisiana Tech: Hawaii has covered four of its last five games against Louisiana Tech.

Houston at Tulane: Since 2003, Houston has covered four straight games versus Tulane.

Indiana at Western Michigan: Since 1996, Indiana is 6-2-2 ATS versus current MAC teams.

Syracuse at Iowa: Syracuse is 8-11 as a road underdog while Iowa is 15-5 as a home favorite the past four seasons.

Virginia Tech at LSU: Virginia Tech is 14-4 ATS on the road the past three seasons.

West Virginia at Marshall: West Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an away favorite the last six years.

Miami (FL) at Oklahoma: Miami has covered three straight games against Oklahoma.

Oregon at Michigan: Over the past decade, Michigan is 0-4 ATS versus Pac-10 teams, including an outright loss at Oregon in 2003.

Miami (OH) at Minnesota: Minnesota is 7-0 as a non-conference favorite.

Missouri at Mississippi: Missouri has covered all three meetings in this series.

Mississippi State at Tulane: Mississippi State is 7-2 ATS its last nine games versus Tulane.

Nebraska at Wake Forest: Wake Forest is a miserable 2-12 as a home favorite the past four seasons.

Nevada at Northwestern: Nevada was 6-1 ATS on the road last year and beat Northwestern at home, covering a seven-point spread.

New Mexico State at New Mexico: The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS the last eight games in this series.

North Texas at SMU: SMU is 4-10 ATS versus non-conference teams the past four seasons.

Notre Dame at Penn State: Penn State is 8-4 ATS versus Notre Dame last 12, including 4-1 ATS in Happy Valley.

Southern Miss at Tennessee: Southern Miss is 11-4 ATS in road openers since 1992 while Tennessee is 19-29 as a home favorite the past eight seasons.

TCU at Texas: Texas is 7-2-1 ATS versus TCU the last 10 meetings.

Fresno State at Texas A&M: Fresno State is 12-3 as a non-conference underdog of three or more points.

Wisconsin at UNLV: Wisconsin is 9-1 ATS away before back to back home games.

Utah State at Wyoming: Wyoming has covered the last three games in this series.

UTEP at Texas Tech: Since 1991, UTEP is 6-22-1 ATS on the road in September.

Are the above Sportsbook busters guaranteed? Of course not. But historians point out that by studying the past we’re better equipped to predict the future. That may be true for sports betting, too.



DROVIN

Mike Williams asked:


There is an old adage that says “April Showers Bring May Flowers”, but for most fantasy players, the only thing that they care about April bringing, is the NFL Draft. There aren’t a whole lot of difference makers that come out of the Rookie Draft each season and become instant fantasy options, but there have been some home run hitters, and if you were lucky enough to have plucked out a Randy Moss or an Anquan Boldin during their rookie years, it was like getting a free extra player in the top 2 rounds of the draft. Two seasons ago, Reggie Bush was dynamite over the money weeks and factored into many playoff wins, however “Pan Down, We’ve Got Bush”, wasn’t exactly a sleeper. He went anywhere from Round 1 to Round 3. The bulk of the successful rookies come from the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and this year is no different, but if you can find that same kind of quality from a rookie taken later in the draft and flying under the radar, then that’s what could help you break the bank. Look no further than the season Marques Colston put together during his rookie fantasy football season.

Tapping into rounds 3-7 of the NFL draft is a hell of a resource, because quite frankly, most people don’t even consider it. In fact, many of the publications and the so called experts who are providing the info for your fellow competitors draft day rankings, will do nothing more then list the middle round draft picks with a blurb that says “no fantasy impact”. In their defense, it’s really not an area to spend a lot of time covering because you are lucky to find one player a year from these rounds. But, if you reflect on Colston and the type of impact he had, why would you not take a long look at these players. In fact, if we look at the last 5 NFL seasons, there have been two super impact rookies drafted from the 3rd round and beyond. In 2006 we had Colston who was a 7th round pick that hauled in 70 balls for 1038 yards and 8 TD’s. In 2003, we had Domanick Davis, a 4th round selection that took over the starting RB job in Week 6 for the Texans. He was a house of fire as he broke the 1,000 yard rushing mark, scored 8 times, and added 47 receptions over 10 starts. In 2004-2006, we didn’t have anyone make as much of an impact. So over the last 5 seasons, that’s a 40% success rate that a rookie from rounds 3-7 has had a big impact. Only 2 guys broke out, but they did so in a big way and if you go back in time, you will see that both Davis and Colston were on many of the eventual championship teams in your league.

Looking at that many players over the last 5 rounds of the draft can be overwhelming, as 66 players were taken at fantasy offensive scoring positions. We can, however, quickly whittle away 66 down to a manageable number, until we have a board of players who should be worth monitoring through August and give us a base of guys who have the most potential to possibly turn into the next Colston or Davis.

In the rounds of 3-7, there were (66) fantasy players taken at offensive skill positions. (QB,RB,TE,WR,K). So that’s our base that we start off with. From those 66 players, we can eliminate the 9 Quarterbacks. If a starting QB goes down this year, these guys still aren’t taking over, so they are non-factors this season. In the crazy event that they end up having to play, you don’t want any part of it anyway, so that cuts the group of players we are looking at to 57.

Next, there were 10 TE’s selected, and we can also go ahead and eliminate them from being factors this season. Most of these players were taken by teams who are set at TE, so there shouldn’t be much fantasy production from these TE’s.

Now down to 47 players on our list, we can start looking at situations where guys just aren’t going to be able to get on the field due to numbers ahead of them no matter what they do. Even if they shine as a rookie, the people in front of them are shining brighter, so that cuts another 39 guys off of our list.

We can next go ahead and cut the 2 kickers who were selected from our list. They may both start, however kickers aren’t going to provide you the Colston impact we are shooting for so we can eliminate them.

This now gives us a working number of 6 guys that we can focus on, who are the most optimal candidates to have a chance to be the ultimate diamond in the rough this season. These players all walk into a situation where they have a chance to play if they perform well in training camp, which is the major reason they make the list. They also have in common that they are either Running Backs or Wide Receivers, key positions in fantasy football. In no particular order, let’s take a look at them.

RUNNING BACKS



#1) Kevin Smith- 3rd Rd. Detroit Lions (Central Florida)

Smith shouldn’t be a surprise, as he is already being touted as the next feature back in Detroit. When the Lions cut Kevin Jones this offseason, Smith immediately became someone to look at. The Lions are thin at RB, with the only two guys in front of Smith being Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun. Smith was a monster at Central Florida, declaring early for the NFL draft after his junior season, amassing 450 carries so his durability shouldn’t be in question. It’s also important to note that the Lions are switching to a new running scheme that Kevin Smith ran in college. He has a great chance to not only play significant minutes, but to win the starting job in Detroit at some point this year.

#2) Steve Slaton- 3rd Rd. Houston Texans (West Virginia)

It boggles my mind that Steve Slaton has slipped so much in the minds of everyone. Coming into last season, Slaton was projected as a top 10 NFL pick, and it all fell away because of one half of a season where he underperformed. Something was off with Slaton and I believe it was an injury. Slaton was a touchdown machine at West Virginia University and came out as a true junior. He has tremendous hands and great breakaway speed. Watch the Pitt tape of his sophomore season where he had over 100 yards receiving, often catching balls lined up split out wide or in the slot. He excels in a zone blocking scheme and that’s just what Houston runs. He also comes into a situation with not a lot of competition. Ahman Green and Chris Brown are both old and have injury concerns. Darius Walker is not even close to as good as Slaton. Slaton has the skills of Marshall Faulk and is a fantastic sleeper in Houston this season. Dare I say he could be the reincarnation of Domanick Davis from his rookie season?

#3) Tim Hightower- 5th Rd. Arizona (Richmond)

Hightower is a dynamo. Edgerrin James isn’t getting any younger and he’s just not the same Edge that lived in Indy. Hightower won’t take his job barring an injury, but keep an eye on him. He rushed for almost 2,000 yards and 20TD’s during his senior year at 1-AA Richmond. And no it’s not 1-A but Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Walter Payton all came out of 1-AA, so keep that in mind.

WIDE RECEIVERS



#4) Earl Bennett- 3rd Rd. Chicago (Vanderbilt)

Any WR in Chicago should be worth checking out as the Bears lost both of their 2007 starting receivers. Bennett caught 80 balls as a true freshman at Vandy when Jay Cutler was the QB. He went on to repeat those numbers over the next few seasons in the tough SEC and that landed him in Chicago. This guy has a great chance to see the field as a rookie for the Bears who are very thin at quality WR’s.

#5) Harry Douglas- 3rd Rd. Atlanta (Louisville)

It’s always good for a rookie to come in under a new coaching regime as it allows them to come in with a clean slate, and it puts some veterans on a shorter leash. The Falcons are one team that is totally in need of a makeover from 2007 and they are going to get it. Douglas was dynamite in college catching many passes at Louisville. He has great hands and has a chance to join a young Atlanta WR corp. Rowdy Roddy White finally stepped up last season, but after him, there is an opportunity for catches for other guys, and Douglas may get a chance at some of them.

#6) Lavelle Hawkins- 4th Rd. Tennessee (California)

Possibly the worst WR corp in all of football resides in Tennessee. Vince Young suffered badly from a lack of production from this unit last season and it has to get better. Hawkins was adequate in college, but is in a great situation where if he plays well in training camp, he may be a factor at WR for the Titans.



DIGBY

Daniel asked:




Louisville -3½ vs. Connecticut.

The UConn Huskies (4-0) have the Friday night NCAA stage all to themselves for the second consecutive week when they play at Louisville (2-1) this week in the Big East opener for both teams.

This game features what have been the league’s top two running backs so far this season in Louisville’s Victor Anderson and the nation’s leading rusher, Connecticut’s Donald Brown.

Brown has 716 yards on the ground in four games - nearly as much as the 826 yards he had last year. He’s been a force to be reckoned with since the beginning of the season, gaining 146 yards during Week 1, 214 in Week 2, 206 in Week 3 and 150 more last Friday against Baylor. He will be motivated to put last year’s game against Louisville behind him as he had only 8 yards on five carries

“He’s very elusive and he’s hard to tackle,” Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe said of Brown. “You never seemingly get a clean shot on him. You’re always trying to get a profile shot on him.”

Anderson had a breakout game against Kansas State in the Cards’ win last week, rushing for 176 yards and three touchdowns and has back-to-back 100-plus-yard games. The Cardinals have relied heavily on the running game to take some of the pressure off QB Hunter Cantwell, though he could get some help on Friday if wide receiver Scott Long can return from a foot injury suffered during training camp.

Long was Louisville’s most experienced returning receiver, catching 27 passes a year ago. Kragthorpe said Long could return Friday. Wide receiver Troy Pascley, who already has two touchdowns this year, should play after injuring his hip against Kansas State. Starting offensive linemen George Bussey and Mark Wetterer will also likely return after sitting out against the Wildcats.

Louisville leads the all-time series 3-1, but last year UConn’s Andre Dixon scored on a 5-yard run with 1:32 left to play to give the Huskies a 21-17 come-from-behind win. However, UConn is 2-11 all-time in Big East road games.

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites for Friday’s game on WagerWeb.com

InSpin.com



CARBONARO

Matthew Mulligan asked:


Now that autumn leaves are blowing in through the patio door and being tracked into the dining room by the dog, our storied institutions of higher learning have begun the time honored process of educating our young people in the arts, sciences, humanities and professional fields. It is noble work. Included in the curriculum is the act of gathering half a dozen young people each fall who are willing to remove most articles of clothing and paint themselves in the school colors to lead a parade though campus. These and other alcohol induced undignified traditions have become the American Homecoming legacy.

It is surprising that none of these institutions have dedicated resources or brain power to better understand the allure of our Homecoming traditions. But maybe these things really are too simple to fully understand. The dignity that most universities present to the world is underpinned by the creation of an excuse – for a weekend anyway – for getting together with other alums to drink and reminisce about how things were better when they were students.

Homecoming is a uniquely American tradition of inviting parents and alumni to campus for a celebration highlighted by a football game. Ostensibly, these institutions say they want to connect alumni and friends with the student body. While this is fine with the alumni, the schools really want to connect alumni and friends to the Development Office.

Some alumni, though, really do want to ‘connect’ with the student body. This is where it gets interesting. Opportunities to make these connections are readily provided. Parades, rallies, dances and the ample ‘tailgate’ parties allow young and pretty college coeds to mingle freely with male alumni who weren’t quite ready to graduate and are kicking themselves for getting that thesis in on time. And that was ten years ago. Homecoming provides alums with a reason to take part in the festivities and contribute a few bucks to the school. This ensures they are invited back the following year to oogle the cheerleaders and watch the sorority parade while decked out in school sweatshirts and Rolex watches.

To keep up appearances, some Universities have attempted to make Homecoming serious. What a waste of effort! Socializing is the one thing most of us took from our college experience that we really enjoyed. The unfortunate among us then got jobs. We gaze longingly back at the days where the biggest concern was making the beer money hold out without getting a job and getting the seat next to Nikki from the dorm in Accounting 101.

Social gatherings are the staple events of Homecoming, although to keep a good face on things, some schools offer open lectures, symposia, and other things that are rolled out to prop up the illusion of a higher purpose. Then of course there is the football game.

What does a losing school do to celebrate its homecoming? It is an interesting study. Losing schools try to deflect attention from the football program, or, at least they should. Others, such as (then) 2-2 Colorado, declared its home game with #3 Oklahoma as its homecoming game. With a roll of the dice, the Buffalos hung themselves out to all their alumni as well as a sizeable television audience against mighty Oklahoma. There wasn’t any hiding from this one. If the Buffaloes went down, they were to be the laughing stock. If the Buckalo kicker could whack one through from 45 yards with no time left, the Gold and Black were in fact golden.

At last report, the Sooners were spending some time in quiet reflection wondering what hit ‘em. Some years ago, Ralphie the 2,000 pound Buffalo mascot got loose on her pregame run around the field and headed for the Oklahoma bench. Handlers got her back under control, but not before several OU players had to return to the locker room for fresh pants and socks. Even fresh uniforms couldn’t save the Sooners drive for a top BCS spot this year as the Buffs knocked ‘em off 27-24. One has to admire the schools that roll out their toughest home games for Homecoming. Most of the time, this strategy results in a humiliating train wreck.

In honor of American Homecoming traditions, here is a look at how some of the leading and losing football programs are handling Homecoming or have attempted to handle it in years past.

Iowa State – Ames, Iowa residents were treated to this year’s theme “Catch the Cyclone Craze.” Events included a scavenger hunt where participants didn’t know quite what they are looking for, being originally instructed only to find the ‘object’ and that other clues would follow. This exercise is very similar to the situation surrounding the Cyclone running game. Everyone knows the ‘object’ is the football, but still, no one can find it and some of the players have no idea what it looks like.

The Homecoming edition of the ISU Alumni mag included an article on Iowa Wineries, but after this season, it may include one about Iowa Whineries. Purchase of a $2.00 homecoming pin and a red sweatshirt worn to the “Wear Red to Get Fed” event – got the underfed students free admission to a cookout featuring all-you-can-eat pork burgers. Any game the Cyclones picked for Homecoming was going to be a touch one, so it really didn’t matter who showed up.

Army – At least these guys can have a damned real parade – complete with people who know something about marching and a band that can play. And everyone considers it an honor to be in the thing. You can also be sure the cadets won’t be wheeling a keg of beer in a shopping cart behind the band. (They are much more creative about hiding it.) The Corps of Cadets scheduled in Tulane this year for what was at least an entertaining game - a 20-17 victory for Army.

Syracuse – Events included the “Orange Friendzy” offering free Dreamcicles and a seminar on crime scene investigation. The ones giving this seminar will be looking at how the Orange managed its only road win against then #18 Louisville. The Orange Homecoming date was October 14 vs. Rutgers. If the Orange team that plucked the Louisville Cardinals had shown up for this one, it would have been interesting. However, the Orange sent out the team that lost its lunch in Iowa City (a 35-0 loss to the Hawkeyes.) Homecoming day will go down as the “Orange Endzy” as this season can’t end soon enough.

Utah State – The Aggie Admin types declared its 9/22 date against San Jose St. as its Homecoming Game. Something called a Paint Dance was to be held. This was either a deeply meaningful tradition or an event designed to show off young tuition-paying students soaked in non natural pigments. We will hope it is the former (or maybe not). There was also a run walk or roll event – which was interesting the morning after trying to get a drink in Utah. Most participants showed up dazed and sober. The school provided Aggie treats and a True Aggie night – although what those events actually were remains a mystery.

San Jose State – In an effort to set itself apart, San Jose State put a heavy academic focus on this year’s festivities – highlighted by a banned book discussion and debate. This might explain what happened to the playbooks. San Jose State is currently 3-5 claiming wins over Utah State, Cal Davis and the Idaho Vandals. SJ State at least had the sense to set up its homecoming game against Idaho.

North Carolina – The NoCareOlina web site only listed Homecoming events from 2006 – including something called Victory Village. It is a lonely place this year as the Blue Tar Heelers up to last week, had a whopping two victories - one over powerhouse James Madison U and a stunning upset of Miami. So the Victory Village is littered with losses to schools no one has ever heard of and one win over a school no one has ever heard of, and one over a team from football’s top tier. Go Figure.

NC State – NCStaters arranged a ‘Pack Howl’ and pep rally for this Homeconing season. One suspects that the Pack Howl was preceded by a billion sponsored tailgate parties and tents. The universal allure of the Delta Zeta tent overrides the Wolfpack’s dismal performance on the field. And this invites the question whether the over inebriated alums are set to howl at the football record or at the DZ Sorority float.

Duke – In a true harmonic convergence of alcohol related events, the 2006 celebration combined Homecoming with Oktoberfest. If the Germans can make beer and dance after drinking, Duke should hire some of ‘em to build a football program. Right now, Duke has one win under their belts – which is a significant improvement over last year. Other special events include hospital tours – presumably the one where they take the Duke players after the Florida State game.

New Mexico State – The school invested a great deal of brain power in their Homecoming. Included in the schedule was a Beans, Burritos and Beer alumni event. This was to be followed by a bonfire. At least these two events weren’t scheduled too closely together or campus would look like the Trinity site a few miles north. Reba also performes this year, but on the stage and not on the field. The Aggies looked into whether or not she had any eligibility left as they were going to throw her in at cornerback.

Notre Dame? – No listing of late for any Homecoming events. Perhaps the Irish don’t celebrate it. That would be understandable this year. Most of the campus is still in the deep depression that occurs when devoted fans face up to a solidly losing season. It is tough to celebrate when you are 0-8. Well at least the Irish haven’t sunk quite to that level this year but they can see 0-8 from where they are. If you included losses from last year, the Irish went 8 straight without a win before going to the Rose Bowl and waking up the UCLA Bruins. Even this win isn’t causing many Irish fans to want to hang out in the stadium parking lot. They’ll stay inside to drink their beer or go to Disneyland.

Idaho – You know when your team plays on the road and the host schools schedule you for their Homecoming, your team is a dog. But what does Idaho do for their own Homecoming? The Idaho Vandals boast a Homecoming theme called “Living the Legacy.” It is curious why a legacy of Vandalism is something to celebrate. Idaho managed a win over Cal Poly this year.. that is it. These on-field distasters don’t pull more bucks from the alumni, so the UI folks are gonna have to do something special… like pull out a win.

For more wit and wisdom, please visit the web page dedicated to the celebration of losing football: http://firstworst.com



PARKERSON